Reliability (how much to trust the pick)
RobustTrust. Both players well-rated on fresh data, no guard fired. The only tier worth betting.
ThinUnproven. A player's rating hasn't converged (few rated matches).
StaleBlind. A player's recent results are invisible to the data (lower-tier gap / long absence) — form unproven.
OverratedOpponent rising. The opponent's current ranking says they're far better than their match history shows — % capped toward the ranking.
DoubtedMarket disagrees. The betting market prices this pick far below the model — the market is usually right. % capped toward the market.
Model vs market chip (on picks with a live line)
✓ ALIGNEDBoth signals agree (within 3pp) — the strongest picks.
△ MODEL +6ppModel runs 3–10pp hotter than the market — mild caution.
▼ DISAGREE 15ppBig gap (10pp+). The market knows something the stats don't — avoid.
▲ MARKET +5ppMarket is even more confident than the model.
Match status
LiveIn progress now.
UpcomingNot started — the bettable window.
Won LostFinished — did the pick win?
The numbers on each card
78%Calibrated probability — the model's number after self-calibration to real results, the 90% ceiling, and any guard caps. This is the honest one.
model 91% →Raw model output before corrections — shown when it differs from the headline.
market 64% (+147)The live exchange line: implied win % and American odds for the pick.
🌱 grass-adjGrass-specific ratings used for this match.
Golden rules
1. Bet only Robust + ✓ ALIGNED. 2. Never pay odds shorter than the pick's fair line. 3. Doubted/Overrated = the warning IS the information. 4. Who-wins reads, not proven +EV.