Compatibility label (the flags below are authoritative)
RobustBoth players well-rated on fresh data and no legacy guard changed the label. This label alone never makes a bet actionable.
ThinUnproven. A player's rating hasn't converged (few rated matches).
StaleBlind. A player's recent results are invisible to the data (lower-tier gap / long absence) — form unproven.
OverratedOpponent rising. The opponent's current ranking says they're far better than their match history shows — % capped toward the ranking.
DoubtedMarket disagrees. The guarded probability is capped toward the market; this may still qualify only if it clears the actual frozen break-even probability.
Model vs market chip (on picks with a live line)
✓ ALIGNEDBoth signals agree (within 3pp) — the strongest picks.
△ MODEL +6ppModel runs 3–10pp hotter than the market — mild caution.
▼ DISAGREE 15ppBig gap (10pp+). The market knows something the stats don't — avoid.
▲ MARKET +5ppMarket is even more confident than the model.
Match status
LiveIn progress now.
UpcomingNot started — the bettable window.
Won LostFinished — did the pick win?
The numbers on each card
78%Guarded probability (profit-aware-v1) — the conservative minimum of empirical calibration, rank probability +3pp, and market probability +3pp. This drives the headline and edge.
raw → empirical → guardedAll three probabilities remain visible so a classifier can never silently override another.
market 40% (+150)The live exchange line: vig-stripped market probability and American odds for the pick.
EDGE +2.4ppConservative edge = guarded probability minus the frozen odds' break-even probability. Positive edge plus complete rank/market data and clean data quality is required to become actionable.
🌱 grass-adjGrass-specific ratings used for this match.
Underdog-edge-v1 paper strategy
DOG +150The model-selected player must be a strict market underdog, have audited frozen odds, complete rank/market anchors, no Thin or Stale flag, and strictly positive conservative edge.
Every qualifier is frozen as a $1 paper single. Five or six qualifiers open a $10-total By-2 Round Robin. Fewer than five means no RR—favorites never fill empty places.
Golden rules
1. No single reliability label decides a bet; inspect the independent flags. 2. Positive frozen-odds edge is necessary, not proof. 3. Underdog-edge-v1 is a new forward record; underdog-v1 remains historical. 4. No auto-betting.