Compatibility label (the flags below are authoritative)
RobustBoth players well-rated on fresh data and no legacy guard changed the label. This label alone never makes a ticket eligible.
ThinUnproven. A player's rating hasn't converged (few rated matches).
StaleBlind. A player's recent results are invisible to the data (lower-tier gap / long absence) — form unproven.
OverratedRank conflict. The rank model is less confident than Elo. This is an input/warning, not a prediction that the selection must lose.
DoubtedMarket disagrees with raw Elo. The player may still be a market favorite. New paper legs need at least +3pp adjusted margin and no rank divergence.
Model vs market chip (on picks with a live line)
✓ ALIGNEDRaw model and market are within 3pp. Agreement alone proves neither value nor that a ticket will win.
△ MODEL +6ppModel runs 3–10pp hotter than the market — mild caution.
▼ DISAGREE 15ppLarge raw-model/market disagreement. Inspect the estimated win chance and frozen price; this tag is not an instruction to bet the opponent.
▲ MARKET +5ppMarket is even more confident than the model.
Match status
LiveIn progress now.
UpcomingNot started — the bettable window.
Won LostFinished — did the pick win?
The numbers on each card
Win estimateThe new learned market-anchored forecast, or the market baseline when the learned correction has not beaten it in earlier-date diagnostics. The source is shown. No model guarantees an individual result.
Risk-adjustedWin estimate minus sampling, calibration, and data-quality allowances. Used for paper price gates; this heuristic allowance is not a statistical confidence interval.
Legacy risk capPreviously labeled Conservative: min(empirical, rank+3pp, market+3pp). Kept in original diagnostics and old records, not presented as the new point forecast. Historical cards without a frozen v2 forecast show their original market percentage as the headline.
market 40% (+150)The live exchange line: vig-stripped market probability and American odds for the pick.
POSITIVE PRICE SIGNAL +2.4ppThe conservative win probability is above the rate required by the frozen price. Every audited positive signal is tracked as a $1 research single; this alone does not make it ticket-ready.
UNCERTAIN PRICE SIGNALThe point estimate is positive, but a thin margin, conflicting indicator, or data-quality flag could erase it. Salkova-type cases stay out of parlays and the RR.
TICKET-READY LEGThe margin remains meaningfully positive after the uncertainty adjustment. Doubted legs need at least +3.0pp adjusted value and no rank divergence.
UNDERDOG RR LEGA Ticket-Ready Leg that is also a strict market underdog above 2.00. Only these legs can enter the five- or six-leg By-2 Round Robin.
SINGLE PRICE TOO SHORTThis judges only the straight-bet price. It does not predict a loss and no longer decides parlay usefulness by itself.
STABILITY V2 · CANDIDATEA clean short favorite whose guarded, rank, empirical, and frozen-market estimates survive a disagreement penalty. Two-leg tickets clear the frozen price gate first, then maximize conservative hit probability.
META TICKETThe one two-leg decision made by the frozen walk-forward selector. Compatibility, market-gap, data-quality, price-value, and v2 labels are inputs to its probability model—not promises that a player will win.
META PASSNo pair cleared the pre-registered conservative probability, frozen-price, expected-log-growth, and drawdown gates. Passing is an official daily decision.
V1 SUSPENDEDThe former market-confirmed-parlay-v1 failed its first forward calibration check. Its frozen record remains visible and immutable, but it can never be promoted and no new v1 tickets open.
PARLAY AVOID · RANK CONFLICTThe selected side may still win, but model-versus-rank disagreement blocks it from the market-confirmed parlay arm. Feistel-type cases land here.
🌱 grass-adjGrass-specific ratings used for this match.
Sportsbook line (book-odds-v1, research only)
DK −150 (opened −140)DraftKings price for the pick, captured by the 30-minute snapshot job, with the book's opening price. Pinnacle is shown as the sharp-book reference. These are observations recorded after publication. They never change the frozen pick, its forecast or its paper tickets.
CLV +2.1ppClosing line value. How far the vig-free market probability moved toward (+) or away from (−) the pick between the first capture and the last pre-start price. Beating the close is evidence about price timing, not proof of long-run profit.
Games O/U 21.5Total-games line. The provider does not document which price is Over. The scorecard checks the side order against results before any totals comparison counts.
Underdog-ticket-v2 paper strategy
DOG +150Every audited positive-price underdog is frozen as a $1 research single, including uncertain signals.
Only five or six Ticket-Ready underdogs open the $10-total By-2 Round Robin. Fewer than five means no RR—favorites and uncertain dogs never fill empty places.
Golden rules
1. Outcome and betting decision are separate: “Won · Pass—price too short” is coherent. 2. Positive price value is necessary, not proof. 3. The frozen meta-selector competes with four deterministic challengers at equal paper risk for at least 60 forward tickets. 4. Selection regret counts unused losers as well as unused winners. 5. No auto-betting.