Compatibility label (the flags below are authoritative)
RobustBoth players well-rated on fresh data and no legacy guard changed the label. This label alone never makes a ticket eligible.
ThinUnproven. A player's rating hasn't converged (few rated matches).
StaleBlind. A player's recent results are invisible to the data (lower-tier gap / long absence) — form unproven.
OverratedOpponent rising. The opponent's current ranking says they're far better than their match history shows — % capped toward the ranking.
DoubtedMarket disagrees. The guarded probability is capped toward the market; this may still qualify only if it clears the actual frozen break-even probability.
Model vs market chip (on picks with a live line)
✓ ALIGNEDBoth signals agree (within 3pp) — the strongest picks.
△ MODEL +6ppModel runs 3–10pp hotter than the market — mild caution.
▼ DISAGREE 15ppBig gap (10pp+). The market knows something the stats don't — avoid.
▲ MARKET +5ppMarket is even more confident than the model.
Match status
LiveIn progress now.
UpcomingNot started — the bettable window.
Won LostFinished — did the pick win?
The numbers on each card
78%Conservative win probability (profit-aware-v1) — the minimum of empirical calibration, rank probability +3pp, and market probability +3pp. This drives the headline and frozen price-value calculation.
model → empirical → conservativeAll three probabilities remain visible so a classifier can never silently override another.
market 40% (+150)The live exchange line: vig-stripped market probability and American odds for the pick.
POSITIVE PRICE SIGNAL +2.4ppThe conservative win probability is above the rate required by the frozen price. Every audited positive signal is tracked as a $1 research single; this alone does not make it ticket-ready.
UNCERTAIN PRICE SIGNALThe point estimate is positive, but a thin margin, conflicting indicator, or data-quality flag could erase it. Salkova-type cases stay out of parlays and the RR.
TICKET-READY LEGThe margin remains meaningfully positive after the uncertainty adjustment. Doubted legs need at least +3.0pp adjusted value and no rank divergence.
UNDERDOG RR LEGA Ticket-Ready Leg that is also a strict market underdog above 2.00. Only these legs can enter the five- or six-leg By-2 Round Robin.
🌱 grass-adjGrass-specific ratings used for this match.
Underdog-ticket-v2 paper strategy
DOG +150Every audited positive-price underdog is frozen as a $1 research single, including uncertain signals.
Only five or six Ticket-Ready underdogs open the $10-total By-2 Round Robin. Fewer than five means no RR—favorites and uncertain dogs never fill empty places.
Golden rules
1. Outcome and betting decision are separate: “Won · Pass—price too short” is coherent. 2. Positive price value is necessary, not proof. 3. The compound-v2 arms compete under equal paper risk before any is preferred. 4. No auto-betting.